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Alternative view of falling inflation in Romania

Starting with August this year NBR is forecasting lower and lower inflation. The latest forecast puts inflation at 1.9% in 1Q2012, at 2.3% in 2Q2012 and at 2.8% in 2013. During this period inflation...

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Recession was needed to control inflation, lower taxes are needed for growth

Almost all central banks use the output gap model to explain the inflation process. They also use to the model to forecast inflation. Romanian National Bank is not an exception. The graph below is put...

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Should we save the RON?

In my last post I was arguing mostly from a theoretical point of view that Inflation Targeting has failed in Romania. To be fair it was never been given a fair chance. Two years into implementing the...

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Money Matters, Romania’s case

This is my contribution to today’s seminar at the National Bank of Romania: Money Supply and Inflation. My main conclusion is that much like the FED in the 30s the NBR misjudged the effect of the...

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